diff --git a/backend/app/lifespan.py b/backend/app/lifespan.py
index 75d445e..5fa6fde 100644
--- a/backend/app/lifespan.py
+++ b/backend/app/lifespan.py
@@ -257,6 +257,14 @@ async def lifespan(app: FastAPI):
                         "scheduled_tuv_usage_stats site=%s failed", site["id"]
                     )
 
+    async def scheduled_ev_usage_stats() -> None:
+        async with app.state.pg_pool.acquire() as conn:
+            try:
+                n = await conn.fetchval("select ems.fn_update_ev_usage_stats(60)")
+                logger.info("ev_usage_stats updated %s rows", n)
+            except Exception:
+                logger.exception("scheduled_ev_usage_stats failed")
+
     async def scheduled_forecast_refresh() -> None:
         async with app.state.pg_pool.acquire() as conn:
             for site in await _active_site_rows(conn):
@@ -423,6 +431,14 @@ async def lifespan(app: FastAPI):
         id="tuv_usage_stats",
         replace_existing=True,
     )
+    scheduler.add_job(
+        scheduled_ev_usage_stats,
+        "cron",
+        hour=0,
+        minute=50,
+        id="ev_usage_stats",
+        replace_existing=True,
+    )
     scheduler.add_job(
         scheduled_ote_import,
         "cron",
diff --git a/backend/services/telemetry_collector.py b/backend/services/telemetry_collector.py
index 93976dc..8ef7c92 100644
--- a/backend/services/telemetry_collector.py
+++ b/backend/services/telemetry_collector.py
@@ -55,6 +55,49 @@ async def _on_ev_arrival(site_id: int, charger_code: str) -> None:
         )
 
 
+async def _on_ev_departure(site_id: int, charger_code: str) -> None:
+    """Odjezd: zapsat pozorování (odometer+SoC) — auto právě jede, je vzhůru.
+
+    Pár odjezd→příjezd dává jízdu (km, kWh) pro ev_usage_stats. Spící/nečitelné
+    auto (408) = tiché přeskočení, jízda se dopočítá z příštích pozorování.
+    """
+    if _BG_POOL is None:
+        return
+    try:
+        from app.db_json import fetch_json
+        from services.tesla_client import get_charge_state
+
+        async with _BG_POOL.acquire() as conn:
+            ctx = await fetch_json(
+                conn,
+                "select ems.fn_tesla_arrival_context($1::int, $2::text)",
+                site_id,
+                charger_code,
+            )
+            if not isinstance(ctx, dict) or ctx.get("api_type") != "tesla":
+                return
+            state = await get_charge_state(conn, ctx.get("vin"))
+            if state is None:
+                return
+            await conn.execute(
+                "select ems.fn_ev_vehicle_obs_insert($1::int, $2::int, 'departure', $3::numeric, $4::numeric, $5::text)",
+                site_id,
+                int(ctx["vehicle_id"]),
+                state.get("odometer_km"),
+                float(state["battery_level"]),
+                state.get("charging_state"),
+            )
+            logger.info(
+                "EV departure obs (site=%s, %s): soc=%s%%, odo=%s km",
+                site_id, charger_code,
+                state["battery_level"], state.get("odometer_km"),
+            )
+    except Exception:
+        logger.exception(
+            "EV departure obs failed (site=%s, %s)", site_id, charger_code
+        )
+
+
 async def _patch_session_from_tesla(
     site_id: int, charger_code: str, conn: asyncpg.Connection
 ) -> None:
@@ -83,6 +126,15 @@ async def _patch_session_from_tesla(
     if state is None:
         return
 
+    await conn.execute(
+        "select ems.fn_ev_vehicle_obs_insert($1::int, $2::int, 'arrival', $3::numeric, $4::numeric, $5::text)",
+        site_id,
+        int(ctx["vehicle_id"]),
+        state.get("odometer_km"),
+        float(state["battery_level"]),
+        state.get("charging_state"),
+    )
+
     if not ctx.get("vin") and state.get("vin"):
         await conn.execute(
             "select ems.fn_vehicle_set_vin($1::int, $2::text)",
@@ -353,6 +405,7 @@ async def poll_ev_chargers(site_id: int, db: asyncpg.Connection) -> None:
                 asyncio.create_task(_on_ev_arrival(site_id, str(code)))
             elif previous_status != "available" and current_status == "available":
                 logger.info("EV departure detected on charger %s", code)
+                asyncio.create_task(_on_ev_departure(site_id, str(code)))
 
 
 async def poll_heat_pump(site_id: int, db: asyncpg.Connection) -> None:
diff --git a/backend/services/tesla_client.py b/backend/services/tesla_client.py
index 9d661a4..600287a 100644
--- a/backend/services/tesla_client.py
+++ b/backend/services/tesla_client.py
@@ -32,18 +32,27 @@ HTTP_TIMEOUT_S = 15.0
 ACCESS_EXPIRY_MARGIN_S = 120
 
 
+MILES_TO_KM = 1.609344
+
+
 def parse_charge_state(vehicle_data: dict[str, Any]) -> dict[str, Any] | None:
-    """Čistý parser odpovědi vehicle_data → {battery_level, charge_limit_soc, charging_state}."""
+    """Parser vehicle_data → battery_level, charge_limit_soc, charging_state, odometer_km.
+
+    POZOR: Tesla API vrací odometer v MÍLÍCH → převod na km.
+    """
     resp = vehicle_data.get("response") or {}
     cs = resp.get("charge_state") or {}
+    vs = resp.get("vehicle_state") or {}
     level = cs.get("battery_level")
     if level is None:
         return None
+    odo_miles = vs.get("odometer")
     return {
         "vin": resp.get("vin"),
         "battery_level": int(level),
         "charge_limit_soc": int(cs.get("charge_limit_soc") or 0) or None,
         "charging_state": cs.get("charging_state"),
+        "odometer_km": round(float(odo_miles) * MILES_TO_KM, 1) if odo_miles is not None else None,
     }
 
 
@@ -135,7 +144,7 @@ async def get_charge_state(
 
         r = await client.get(
             f"{API_BASE}/api/1/vehicles/{chosen['id']}/vehicle_data",
-            params={"endpoints": "charge_state"},
+            params={"endpoints": "charge_state;vehicle_state"},
         )
         if r.status_code == 408:
             logger.info("Tesla: vozidlo spí / nedostupné (408) — SoC nedoplněno")
diff --git a/backend/tests/test_tesla_client.py b/backend/tests/test_tesla_client.py
index 4bf66b8..6159723 100644
--- a/backend/tests/test_tesla_client.py
+++ b/backend/tests/test_tesla_client.py
@@ -28,6 +28,20 @@ class ParseChargeStateTests(unittest.TestCase):
         self.assertIsNone(parse_charge_state({"response": {"charge_state": {}}}))
         self.assertIsNone(parse_charge_state({}))
 
+    def test_odometer_miles_to_km(self) -> None:
+        data = {
+            "response": {
+                "charge_state": {"battery_level": 60},
+                "vehicle_state": {"odometer": 12345.6},  # míle!
+            }
+        }
+        out = parse_charge_state(data)
+        self.assertAlmostEqual(out["odometer_km"], 19868.3, places=1)
+
+    def test_missing_odometer_is_none(self) -> None:
+        data = {"response": {"charge_state": {"battery_level": 60}}}
+        self.assertIsNone(parse_charge_state(data)["odometer_km"])
+
     def test_zero_limit_normalized_to_none(self) -> None:
         data = {"response": {"charge_state": {"battery_level": 10, "charge_limit_soc": 0}}}
         self.assertIsNone(parse_charge_state(data)["charge_limit_soc"])
diff --git a/db/migration/V089__ev_usage_forecast.sql b/db/migration/V089__ev_usage_forecast.sql
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..3cd22f6
--- /dev/null
+++ b/db/migration/V089__ev_usage_forecast.sql
@@ -0,0 +1,63 @@
+-- EV spotřební forecast: pozorování (odometer+SoC při příjezdu/odjezdu, auto je
+-- vzhůru — žádné buzení navíc), jízdy, statistiky per den v týdnu. Cíl: target
+-- SoC a deadline session z reálného týdenního rytmu (pondělí služebka ~150 km
+-- → skoro plná; konec týdne míň; víkend = levné sloty na přípravu pondělka).
+-- Zapnutí per vozidlo: target_soc_forecast_enabled (default false = sbírá se,
+-- session jedou na defaultech).
+
+alter table ems.asset_vehicle
+  add column if not exists target_soc_forecast_enabled boolean not null default false,
+  add column if not exists min_target_soc_pct numeric(5,2) not null default 30.0;
+
+comment on column ems.asset_vehicle.target_soc_forecast_enabled is
+'true = target SoC + deadline session z ev_usage_stats (fn_ev_required_soc); false = default_target_soc_pct/default_deadline_hour. Forecast vyžaduje >= 4 vzorky pro daný den v týdnu, jinak fallback.';
+comment on column ems.asset_vehicle.min_target_soc_pct is
+'Komfortní spodní mez forecast targetu (%). Forecast smí jít pod default_target_soc_pct (např. pátek), ne pod tuto mez.';
+
+create table ems.ev_vehicle_obs (
+  id bigserial primary key,
+  site_id int not null references ems.site (id),
+  vehicle_id int not null references ems.asset_vehicle (id),
+  observed_at timestamptz not null default now(),
+  trigger text not null check (trigger in ('arrival', 'departure', 'manual')),
+  odometer_km numeric(10, 1),
+  soc_pct numeric(5, 2),
+  charging_state text
+);
+
+create index idx_ev_vehicle_obs_vehicle_time
+  on ems.ev_vehicle_obs (vehicle_id, observed_at desc);
+
+comment on table ems.ev_vehicle_obs is
+'Pozorování vozidla z API výrobce (Tesla Fleet) při příjezdu/odjezdu — auto je v těch okamžicích vzhůru, čtení nebudí. Zdroj pro ev_trip.';
+
+create table ems.ev_trip (
+  id serial primary key,
+  vehicle_id int not null references ems.asset_vehicle (id),
+  departure_obs_id bigint not null references ems.ev_vehicle_obs (id),
+  arrival_obs_id bigint not null references ems.ev_vehicle_obs (id),
+  departed_at timestamptz not null,
+  arrived_at timestamptz not null,
+  km numeric(8, 1),
+  kwh_est numeric(7, 2),
+  charged_away boolean not null default false,
+  constraint uq_ev_trip_departure unique (departure_obs_id)
+);
+
+comment on table ems.ev_trip is
+'Jízda = pár odjezd→příjezd: km z odometru, kWh z ΔSoC × kapacita. charged_away = SoC po cestě vzrostlo (nabíjení mimo dům) — kWh nevypovídá, vyloučit ze statistik.';
+
+create table ems.ev_usage_stats (
+  vehicle_id int not null references ems.asset_vehicle (id),
+  day_of_week int not null check (day_of_week between 0 and 6),
+  avg_day_kwh numeric(7, 2),
+  stddev_day_kwh numeric(7, 2),
+  avg_day_km numeric(8, 1),
+  avg_departure_hour numeric(4, 2),
+  sample_count int not null default 0,
+  last_updated timestamptz not null default now(),
+  primary key (vehicle_id, day_of_week)
+);
+
+comment on table ems.ev_usage_stats is
+'Týdenní rytmus vozidla per den v týdnu (0=neděle, Europe/Prague): průměrná denní spotřeba jízdou (kWh), km, typická hodina prvního odjezdu. Plní fn_update_ev_usage_stats (job 00:50). Vstup fn_ev_required_soc / fn_ev_expected_departure.';
diff --git a/db/routines/R__016_fn_ev_session_transition.sql b/db/routines/R__016_fn_ev_session_transition.sql
index d21f3d9..493a46a 100644
--- a/db/routines/R__016_fn_ev_session_transition.sql
+++ b/db/routines/R__016_fn_ev_session_transition.sql
@@ -45,17 +45,23 @@ begin
       ac.id,
       av.id,
       now(),
-      av.default_target_soc_pct,
-      case
-        when av.default_deadline_hour is not null then
-          (
-            (timezone('Europe/Prague', now()))::date + interval '1 day'
-            + make_interval(hours => av.default_deadline_hour)
-          )::timestamp at time zone 'Europe/Prague'
-      end
+      -- forecast z týdenního rytmu (ev_usage_stats), fallback defaulty;
+      -- ruční přepis přes fn_ev_session_apply_patch vždy vyhrává.
+      coalesce(fc.required_soc, av.default_target_soc_pct),
+      coalesce(
+        fc.expected_departure,
+        case
+          when av.default_deadline_hour is not null then
+            (
+              (timezone('Europe/Prague', now()))::date + interval '1 day'
+              + make_interval(hours => av.default_deadline_hour)
+            )::timestamp at time zone 'Europe/Prague'
+        end
+      )
     from ems.asset_ev_charger ac
     left join lateral (
-      select v.id, v.default_target_soc_pct, v.default_deadline_hour
+      select v.id, v.default_target_soc_pct, v.default_deadline_hour,
+             v.target_soc_forecast_enabled
       from ems.asset_vehicle v
       where v.default_charger_id = ac.id
         and v.site_id = ac.site_id
@@ -63,6 +69,15 @@ begin
       order by v.id
       limit 1
     ) av on true
+    left join lateral (
+      select dep.expected_departure,
+             ems.fn_ev_required_soc(av.id, dep.expected_departure) as required_soc
+      from (
+        select ems.fn_ev_next_departure(av.id, now()) as expected_departure
+      ) dep
+      where av.target_soc_forecast_enabled
+        and dep.expected_departure is not null
+    ) fc on true
     where ac.id = p_charger_id
       and ac.site_id = p_site_id
     on conflict (charger_id) where session_end is null do nothing;
diff --git a/db/routines/R__096_fn_ev_usage.sql b/db/routines/R__096_fn_ev_usage.sql
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..9c089d9
--- /dev/null
+++ b/db/routines/R__096_fn_ev_usage.sql
@@ -0,0 +1,205 @@
+-- EV spotřební forecast (SQL-first): vložení pozorování, párování jízd,
+-- statistiky per DOW, odvození target SoC a očekávaného odjezdu.
+
+create or replace function ems.fn_ev_vehicle_obs_insert(
+  p_site_id int,
+  p_vehicle_id int,
+  p_trigger text,
+  p_odometer_km numeric,
+  p_soc_pct numeric,
+  p_charging_state text
+)
+returns bigint
+language sql
+as $fn$
+  insert into ems.ev_vehicle_obs (
+    site_id, vehicle_id, trigger, odometer_km, soc_pct, charging_state
+  )
+  values (
+    p_site_id, p_vehicle_id, p_trigger, p_odometer_km, p_soc_pct, p_charging_state
+  )
+  returning id;
+$fn$;
+
+-- Spáruje odjezdy s nejbližším následujícím příjezdem téhož vozidla.
+create or replace function ems.fn_ev_build_trips()
+returns int
+language plpgsql
+as $fn$
+declare
+  v_count int := 0;
+  r record;
+  v_arr record;
+begin
+  for r in
+    select o.*
+    from ems.ev_vehicle_obs o
+    where o.trigger = 'departure'
+      and o.odometer_km is not null
+      and not exists (
+        select 1 from ems.ev_trip t where t.departure_obs_id = o.id
+      )
+    order by o.vehicle_id, o.observed_at
+  loop
+    select a.* into v_arr
+    from ems.ev_vehicle_obs a
+    where a.vehicle_id = r.vehicle_id
+      and a.trigger = 'arrival'
+      and a.observed_at > r.observed_at
+      and a.odometer_km is not null
+    order by a.observed_at
+    limit 1;
+
+    if v_arr.id is null then
+      continue;  -- jízda ještě neskončila
+    end if;
+
+    insert into ems.ev_trip (
+      vehicle_id, departure_obs_id, arrival_obs_id,
+      departed_at, arrived_at, km, kwh_est, charged_away
+    )
+    select
+      r.vehicle_id, r.id, v_arr.id,
+      r.observed_at, v_arr.observed_at,
+      greatest(0, v_arr.odometer_km - r.odometer_km),
+      case
+        when r.soc_pct is null or v_arr.soc_pct is null then null
+        when v_arr.soc_pct > r.soc_pct then null  -- nabíjeno cestou
+        else round(((r.soc_pct - v_arr.soc_pct) / 100.0
+                    * av.battery_capacity_kwh)::numeric, 2)
+      end,
+      coalesce(v_arr.soc_pct > r.soc_pct, false)
+    from ems.asset_vehicle av
+    where av.id = r.vehicle_id
+    on conflict (departure_obs_id) do nothing;
+
+    v_count := v_count + 1;
+  end loop;
+  return v_count;
+end;
+$fn$;
+
+-- Přepočet týdenního rytmu z jízd za lookback okno (plný přepočet, ne EMA —
+-- rebuild-friendly; jízdy s nabíjením cestou se počítají do km, ne do kWh).
+create or replace function ems.fn_update_ev_usage_stats(
+  p_lookback_days int default 60
+)
+returns int
+language plpgsql
+as $fn$
+declare
+  v_built int;
+  v_count int;
+begin
+  v_built := ems.fn_ev_build_trips();
+
+  with daily as (
+    select
+      t.vehicle_id,
+      (t.departed_at at time zone 'Europe/Prague')::date as d,
+      extract(dow from t.departed_at at time zone 'Europe/Prague')::int as dow,
+      sum(t.kwh_est) filter (where not t.charged_away) as day_kwh,
+      sum(t.km) as day_km,
+      min(extract(hour from t.departed_at at time zone 'Europe/Prague')
+          + extract(minute from t.departed_at at time zone 'Europe/Prague') / 60.0
+      ) as first_departure_hour
+    from ems.ev_trip t
+    where t.departed_at >= now() - make_interval(days => p_lookback_days)
+      and t.km >= 1.0  -- přepojení kabelu bez jízdy nepočítat
+    group by 1, 2, 3
+  ),
+  agg as (
+    select
+      vehicle_id, dow,
+      avg(day_kwh) as avg_kwh,
+      stddev(day_kwh) as sd_kwh,
+      avg(day_km) as avg_km,
+      avg(first_departure_hour) as avg_dep,
+      count(*) as samples
+    from daily
+    group by 1, 2
+  )
+  insert into ems.ev_usage_stats (
+    vehicle_id, day_of_week, avg_day_kwh, stddev_day_kwh,
+    avg_day_km, avg_departure_hour, sample_count, last_updated
+  )
+  select
+    vehicle_id, dow, round(avg_kwh::numeric, 2), round(coalesce(sd_kwh, 0)::numeric, 2),
+    round(avg_km::numeric, 1), round(avg_dep::numeric, 2), samples, now()
+  from agg
+  on conflict (vehicle_id, day_of_week) do update set
+    avg_day_kwh = excluded.avg_day_kwh,
+    stddev_day_kwh = excluded.stddev_day_kwh,
+    avg_day_km = excluded.avg_day_km,
+    avg_departure_hour = excluded.avg_departure_hour,
+    sample_count = excluded.sample_count,
+    last_updated = now();
+
+  get diagnostics v_count = row_count;
+  return v_count;
+end;
+$fn$;
+
+comment on function ems.fn_update_ev_usage_stats is
+'Spáruje nové jízdy (fn_ev_build_trips) a přepočte ev_usage_stats za lookback okno. Job 00:50.';
+
+-- Příští očekávaný den s jízdou (>= 3 km průměru a >= 4 vzorky) v horizontu 7 dní.
+create or replace function ems.fn_ev_next_departure(
+  p_vehicle_id int,
+  p_from timestamptz default now()
+)
+returns timestamptz
+language sql
+stable
+as $fn$
+  select min(dep)
+  from (
+    select (
+      ((p_from at time zone 'Europe/Prague')::date + offs)::timestamp
+      + make_interval(mins => (round(s.avg_departure_hour * 60))::int)
+    ) at time zone 'Europe/Prague' as dep
+    from generate_series(0, 7) offs
+    join ems.ev_usage_stats s
+      on s.vehicle_id = p_vehicle_id
+      and s.day_of_week = extract(
+        dow from (p_from at time zone 'Europe/Prague')::date + offs
+      )::int
+    where s.sample_count >= 4
+      and s.avg_day_km >= 3.0
+  ) cand
+  where cand.dep > p_from + interval '30 minutes';
+$fn$;
+
+comment on function ems.fn_ev_next_departure is
+'Nejbližší typický odjezd vozidla dle ev_usage_stats (DOW s >=4 vzorky a >=3 km). NULL = málo dat → volající použije default_deadline_hour.';
+
+-- Target SoC pro odjezd v daný den: P80 denní spotřeby + rezerva 10 p.b.,
+-- clamp do [min_target_soc_pct, 100]. NULL = málo dat.
+create or replace function ems.fn_ev_required_soc(
+  p_vehicle_id int,
+  p_departure_at timestamptz
+)
+returns numeric
+language sql
+stable
+as $fn$
+  select least(100.0, greatest(
+    av.min_target_soc_pct,
+    ceil(
+      (s.avg_day_kwh + 0.8416 * s.stddev_day_kwh)  -- ~P80
+      / nullif(av.battery_capacity_kwh, 0) * 100.0
+    ) + 10.0
+  ))
+  from ems.asset_vehicle av
+  join ems.ev_usage_stats s
+    on s.vehicle_id = av.id
+    and s.day_of_week = extract(
+      dow from p_departure_at at time zone 'Europe/Prague'
+    )::int
+  where av.id = p_vehicle_id
+    and s.sample_count >= 4
+    and s.avg_day_kwh is not null;
+$fn$;
+
+comment on function ems.fn_ev_required_soc is
+'Cílové SoC (%) pro odjezd: P80 spotřeby dne v týdnu + 10 p.b. rezerva, mez [min_target_soc_pct, 100]. NULL = málo dat → default_target_soc_pct.';