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Investiční studie v2: POTENCIÁLNÍ výroba místo telemetrie (škrcení 81 %!)

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Klíčová oprava (postřeh uživatele): při sell<0 lokality škrtí výrobu
(reg 340 / GEN cutoff) — telemetrie ukázala 357 kWh, predikce 1879 kWh
(96 % minut v derating). Studie nyní používají max(skutečnost, kanonický
forecast per pole) v sell<0 slotech.

Nové výsledky (horní meze): BA81 32 kWh +35/+46 Kč/den (výkon 6.25/12 kW);
KV1 25 kWh +20/+22 Kč/den (stará smlouva); HU1 fixní: 75 Kč/den bez sdílení,
149 Kč/den s EDC sdílením @1.5 Kč distribuce (sdílitelných ~49 kWh/den!);
HU1 spot: 372 Kč/den, sdílení +0. + docs/onboarding-wallbox-tc-2026-06.md.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
Dusan Vojacek
2026-06-11 17:24:49 +02:00
parent d47f5f8b87
commit 53e9afb513
4 changed files with 110 additions and 4 deletions
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26
scripts/harness/battery_upgrade_study.py
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@@ -131,12 +131,34 @@ async def _load_slots(conn: asyncpg.Connection, site_id: int) -> list[Slot]:
select a.interval_start,
p.effective_buy_price_czk_kwh as buy,
p.effective_sell_price_czk_kwh as sell,
greatest(0, coalesce(a.actual_pv_production_wh,0) - coalesce(a.pv_b_production_wh,0)) as pv_a,
coalesce(a.pv_b_production_wh,0) as pv_b,
-- POTENCIÁL: při sell<0 lokalita škrtí výrobu (reg 340 / GEN cutoff),
-- telemetrie ji nevidí → použij max(skutečnost, predikce) per pole.
case when p.effective_sell_price_czk_kwh < 0
then greatest(coalesce(a.actual_pv_production_wh,0) - coalesce(a.pv_b_production_wh,0),
coalesce(fc.fc_a_wh, 0))
else greatest(0, coalesce(a.actual_pv_production_wh,0) - coalesce(a.pv_b_production_wh,0))
end as pv_a,
case when p.effective_sell_price_czk_kwh < 0
then greatest(coalesce(a.pv_b_production_wh,0), coalesce(fc.fc_b_wh, 0))
else coalesce(a.pv_b_production_wh,0)
end as pv_b,
coalesce(a.actual_load_consumption_wh,0) as load
from ems.audit_interval a
join ems.vw_site_effective_price p
on p.site_id = a.site_id and p.interval_start = a.interval_start
left join lateral (
select
sum(power_w) filter (where pa.controllable) * 0.25 as fc_a_wh,
sum(power_w) filter (where not pa.controllable) * 0.25 as fc_b_wh
from (
select distinct on (fpr.pv_array_id) fpi2.power_w, fpr.pv_array_id
from ems.forecast_pv_interval fpi2
join ems.forecast_pv_run fpr on fpr.id = fpi2.run_id
where fpi2.interval_start = a.interval_start
order by fpr.pv_array_id, fpr.created_at desc
) x
join ems.asset_pv_array pa on pa.id = x.pv_array_id and pa.site_id = a.site_id
) fc on true
where a.site_id = $1 and a.actual_load_consumption_wh is not null
order by a.interval_start
""",