uprava aby rano prodaval do site pred sell < 0 oknem

backend/services/planning_engine.py

@@ -71,7 +71,12 @@ NEG_BUY_CHARGE_SHORTFALL_PENALTY_CZK_KWH = 100.0
 PRE_NEG_CHARGE_PENALTY_CZK_KWH = 400.0
 PRE_NEG_BATT_EXPORT_SHORTFALL_PENALTY_CZK_KWH = 80.0
 PRE_NEG_BATT_EXPORT_MIN_SELL_CZK_KWH = 1.0
-PLANNER_BUILD_TAG = "2026-05-28-neg-sell-soc-phases-v32"
+PLANNER_BUILD_TAG = "2026-05-28-pre-neg-pv-export-forecast-v33"
+# Před prvním sell<0: export FVE jen pokud predikce v sell<0 okně pokryje dobítí na prep cíl.
+PRE_NEG_PV_EXPORT_FORECAST_MARGIN = 1.15
+PRE_NEG_PV_EXPORT_MIN_NEEDED_WH = 2500.0
+PRE_NEG_PV_EXPORT_SHORTFALL_PENALTY_CZK_KWH = 55.0
+PRE_NEG_PV_BCPV_DISCOURAGE_CZK_KWH = 90.0
 POS_SELL_PRE_NEG_SOC_SHORTFALL_PENALTY_CZK_PER_WH = 0.30
 PRE_NEG_BUY_SOC_CEILING_SLACK_PENALTY_CZK_PER_WH = 0.25
 PRE_NEG_BUY_EMPTY_EXPORT_SHORTFALL_PENALTY_CZK_KWH = 80.0
@@ -860,6 +865,90 @@ def _neg_sell_day_phases(
     return phases, soc_targets, shortfall_weights
 
 
+def _neg_sell_day_pv_usable_wh(
+    slots: list[PlanningSlot],
+    first_neg_sell_idx: int | None,
+    *,
+    max_charge_power_w: float,
+    charge_efficiency: float,
+) -> float:
+    """
+    Odhad Wh nabitelné z FVE v sell<0 slotech téhož pražského dne (forecast surplus × cap nabíjení).
+    """
+    if first_neg_sell_idx is None:
+        return 0.0
+    neg_day = _prague_calendar_date(slots[first_neg_sell_idx])
+    total_wh = 0.0
+    for s in slots:
+        if _prague_calendar_date(s) != neg_day:
+            continue
+        if float(s.sell_price) >= 0.0:
+            continue
+        pv_surplus_w = max(
+            0.0,
+            float(s.pv_a_forecast_w)
+            + float(s.pv_b_forecast_w)
+            - float(s.load_baseline_w),
+        )
+        if pv_surplus_w <= 500.0:
+            continue
+        cap_w = min(pv_surplus_w, float(max_charge_power_w))
+        total_wh += cap_w * INTERVAL_H * float(charge_efficiency)
+    return total_wh
+
+
+def _pre_neg_pv_export_forecast_cushion_ok(
+    slots: list[PlanningSlot],
+    battery: Any,
+    current_soc_wh: float,
+    first_neg_sell_idx: int | None,
+    *,
+    neg_sell_phases_en: bool,
+) -> bool:
+    """
+    Export FVE před sell<0 jen pokud forecast v záporném okně pokryje dobítí na cíl (typ. 80 %).
+    Jinak raději nabíjet teď — riziko deště / podhodnocené FVE v sell<0.
+    """
+    if first_neg_sell_idx is None or first_neg_sell_idx <= 0:
+        return False
+    prep_pct = float(getattr(battery, "planner_neg_sell_prep_soc_percent", 100.0))
+    if neg_sell_phases_en and prep_pct < 100.0 - 1e-6:
+        target_wh = prep_pct / 100.0 * float(battery.soc_max_wh)
+    else:
+        target_wh = float(battery.soc_max_wh)
+    needed_wh = max(0.0, target_wh - float(current_soc_wh))
+    if needed_wh < PRE_NEG_PV_EXPORT_MIN_NEEDED_WH:
+        return True
+    usable_wh = _neg_sell_day_pv_usable_wh(
+        slots,
+        first_neg_sell_idx,
+        max_charge_power_w=float(battery.max_charge_power_w),
+        charge_efficiency=float(battery.charge_efficiency),
+    )
+    return usable_wh >= needed_wh * PRE_NEG_PV_EXPORT_FORECAST_MARGIN
+
+
+def _pre_neg_pv_export_slot_indices(
+    slots: list[PlanningSlot],
+    first_neg_sell_idx: int | None,
+    pre_neg_export_last_t: int | None,
+    first_neg_buy_idx: int | None,
+) -> set[int]:
+    """Sloty s kladným sell před prvním sell<0 (a před buy<0), PV přebytek)."""
+    if first_neg_sell_idx is None or pre_neg_export_last_t is None:
+        return set()
+    out: set[int] = set()
+    for t in range(pre_neg_export_last_t + 1):
+        if float(slots[t].sell_price) < 0.0:
+            continue
+        if first_neg_buy_idx is not None and t >= first_neg_buy_idx:
+            continue
+        if _slot_pv_surplus_w(slots[t]) <= NIGHT_EXPORT_PV_SUNRISE_SURPLUS_W:
+            continue
+        out.add(t)
+    return out
+
+
 MORNING_PRENEG_START_HOUR = 5
 MORNING_PRENEG_END_HOUR = 11
 
@@ -1646,6 +1735,29 @@ def solve_dispatch(
     prep_hold_bcpv_shortfall: list[tuple[int, pulp.LpVariable, float]] = []
     prep_hold_curtail_shortfall: list[tuple[int, pulp.LpVariable, float]] = []
     prep_hold_met_binary: dict[int, pulp.LpVariable] = {}
+    pre_neg_pv_export_forecast_ok = bool(
+        om == "AUTO"
+        and not purchase_fixed_pre
+        and first_neg_sell_idx is not None
+        and pre_neg_export_last_t is not None
+        and _pre_neg_pv_export_forecast_cushion_ok(
+            slots,
+            battery,
+            current_soc_wh,
+            first_neg_sell_idx,
+            neg_sell_phases_en=neg_sell_phases_en,
+        )
+    )
+    pre_neg_pv_export_ts = (
+        _pre_neg_pv_export_slot_indices(
+            slots,
+            first_neg_sell_idx,
+            pre_neg_export_last_t,
+            first_neg_buy_idx,
+        )
+        if pre_neg_pv_export_forecast_ok
+        else set()
+    )
     pre_neg_buy_discharge_ts: set[int] = set()
     if om == "AUTO" and first_neg_buy_idx is not None and first_neg_buy_idx > 0:
         pre_neg_buy_discharge_ts = _pre_neg_buy_discharge_indices(
@@ -1815,6 +1927,7 @@ def solve_dispatch(
     peak_export_shortfall: list[tuple[int, pulp.LpVariable, float]] = []
     pv_charge_shortfall: list[tuple[int, pulp.LpVariable, float]] = []
     pre_neg_pv_charge_shortfall: list[tuple[int, pulp.LpVariable, float]] = []
+    pre_neg_pv_export_shortfall: list[tuple[int, pulp.LpVariable, float]] = []
     neg_sell_bat_dump_shortfall: list[tuple[int, pulp.LpVariable, float]] = []
     neg_sell_soc_underfill: list[tuple[int, pulp.LpVariable, float]] = []
     neg_buy_charge_shortfall: list[tuple[int, pulp.LpVariable, float]] = []
@@ -1904,6 +2017,25 @@ def solve_dispatch(
                 cap_ns = float(min(pv_surplus_ns, battery.max_charge_power_w))
                 sf_ns = pulp.LpVariable(f"neg_phase_pv_charge_{t_ns}", 0, cap_ns)
                 pv_charge_shortfall.append((t_ns, sf_ns, cap_ns))
+        if pre_neg_pv_export_forecast_ok:
+            for t_pe in sorted(pre_neg_pv_export_ts):
+                s_pe = slots[t_pe]
+                pv_surplus_pe = max(
+                    0.0,
+                    float(s_pe.pv_a_forecast_w)
+                    + float(s_pe.pv_b_forecast_w)
+                    - float(s_pe.load_baseline_w),
+                )
+                cap_pe = float(
+                    min(
+                        pv_surplus_pe,
+                        float(grid.max_export_power_w),
+                    )
+                )
+                if cap_pe <= 500.0:
+                    continue
+                sf_pe = pulp.LpVariable(f"pre_neg_pv_export_sf_{t_pe}", 0, cap_pe)
+                pre_neg_pv_export_shortfall.append((t_pe, sf_pe, cap_pe))
         for t in range(T):
             if not post_neg_pv_topup[t]:
                 continue
@@ -2122,6 +2254,17 @@ def solve_dispatch(
             sf * NEG_SELL_CURTAIL_PENALTY_CZK_KWH * INTERVAL_H / 1000.0
             for _t, sf, _cap in prep_hold_curtail_shortfall
         )
+        + pulp.lpSum(
+            sf * PRE_NEG_PV_EXPORT_SHORTFALL_PENALTY_CZK_KWH * INTERVAL_H / 1000.0
+            for _t, sf, _cap in pre_neg_pv_export_shortfall
+        )
+        + pulp.lpSum(
+            bc_pv[t]
+            * PRE_NEG_PV_BCPV_DISCOURAGE_CZK_KWH
+            * INTERVAL_H
+            / 1000.0
+            for t in pre_neg_pv_export_ts
+        )
         + pulp.lpSum(
             sf * NEG_SELL_BAT_DUMP_SHORTFALL_PENALTY_CZK_KWH * INTERVAL_H / 1000.0
             for _t, sf, _cap in neg_sell_bat_dump_shortfall
@@ -2211,6 +2354,8 @@ def solve_dispatch(
         prob += sf >= cap_w - ge_bat[t_sf]
     for t_sf, sf, cap_w in pre_neg_pv_charge_shortfall:
         prob += sf >= cap_w - bc_pv[t_sf]
+    for t_sf, sf, cap_w in pre_neg_pv_export_shortfall:
+        prob += sf >= cap_w - ge_pv[t_sf]
     preneg_export_min_soc_wh = float(min_soc_wh) + max(
         float(battery.max_discharge_power_w)
         * float(battery.discharge_efficiency)
@@ -2662,6 +2807,9 @@ def solve_dispatch(
             ):
                 prob += ge_bat[t] == 0
                 prob += z_export[t] == 0
+        for t_pne in pre_neg_pv_export_ts:
+            # v33: při dostatečné FVE v sell<0 okně neukládat ranní PV do baterie — export.
+            prob += bc_pv[t_pne] == 0
 
         # Ekonomické guardy: ceny v objective nestačí proti maskám / terminal SoC.
         # Referenční buy jen z ne-záporných slotů: jinak jeden buy<0 v horizontu označí
@@ -2689,18 +2837,8 @@ def solve_dispatch(
                 0.0,
                 float(s.pv_a_forecast_w) + float(s.pv_b_forecast_w) - load_t,
             )
-            # FVE export: před prvním sell<0 smí jít přebytek do sítě (kladný sell), pak nabít
-            # v záporném okně z PV. Jinak držet energii na future_sell peak.
-            allow_pre_neg_pv_export = (
-                first_neg_sell_idx is not None
-                and pre_neg_export_last_t is not None
-                and t <= pre_neg_export_last_t
-                and sell_t >= 0
-                and (
-                    first_neg_buy_idx is None
-                    or t < first_neg_buy_idx
-                )
-            )
+            # FVE export před sell<0 jen pokud forecast v sell<0 okně pokryje dobítí (v33).
+            allow_pre_neg_pv_export = t in pre_neg_pv_export_ts
             pv_store_val = _pv_store_value_czk_kwh(s, min_spread)
             skip_pv_store_block = (
                 float(s.pv_b_forecast_w) > 0
@@ -3124,6 +3262,20 @@ def solve_dispatch(
                 ),
             },
             "neg_sell_phases_enabled": bool(neg_sell_phases_en),
+            "pre_neg_pv_export_forecast_ok": bool(pre_neg_pv_export_forecast_ok),
+            "pre_neg_pv_export_slots": [
+                slots[i].interval_start.isoformat() for i in sorted(pre_neg_pv_export_ts)
+            ],
+            "neg_sell_day_pv_usable_wh": (
+                _neg_sell_day_pv_usable_wh(
+                    slots,
+                    first_neg_sell_idx,
+                    max_charge_power_w=float(battery.max_charge_power_w),
+                    charge_efficiency=float(battery.charge_efficiency),
+                )
+                if first_neg_sell_idx is not None
+                else None
+            ),
             "load_first_enabled": om == "AUTO",
             "relaxed_expensive_import": relaxed_expensive_import,
             "charge_acquisition_buy_czk_kwh": charge_acquisition_czk_kwh,