Studie investic: navýšení baterií BA81/KV1 + HU1 BESS (perfect hindsight nad reálnými daty)
battery_upgrade_study.py: oracle MILP po týdenních oknech s navazujícím SoC, plné limity (síť, BMS, bateriová cesta střídače, AC strop hybridu, GEN 5 kW mimo AC strop, gen-cutoff shed pole B). Výsledky viz docstring/report. hu1_bess_study.py: čistý BESS 128 kWh / 36 kW / AC 40 kW; fixní (BA81) vs spot (site 5) ceny; EDC sdílecí kanál z BA81 neg-sell přebytku s citlivostí na distribuci. Klíčové: spot nákup ~7× výnosnější než fixní; EDC sdílení přidává málo (fixní) až nic (spot — neg buy levnější než distribuce). Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Dusan Vojacek
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scripts/harness/hu1_bess_study.py
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scripts/harness/hu1_bess_study.py
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#!/usr/bin/env python3
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"""
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Studie HU1 (Hulín BESS): 128 kWh / 36 kW baterie, 2×20 kW Deye (AC 40 kW).
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Ekonomika čistého BESS (bez PV a spotřeby) nad reálným obdobím BA81 auditu:
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- nákup FIXNÍ jako BA81 (efektivní buy site 3 — dle záměru smlouvy),
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- prodej SPOT (efektivní sell site 3 jako proxy; HU1 marže dle budoucí smlouvy),
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- limity: baterie 36 kW (BMS/střídač), AC 40 kW, import 43 kW, export 42 kW,
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block_export_on_negative_sell = true (konfigurace site 5 v DB),
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- volitelný EDC sdílecí kanál z BA81: v slotech, kdy má BA81 přebytek při
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sell<0, lze nabíjet za pouhou distribuci (parametr; citlivost 1.0/1.5/2.0
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Kč/kWh). Množství = skutečný přebytek BA81 (pv − load) z auditu.
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Výstup: Kč/den bez sdílení a se sdílením — horní mez (perfect hindsight).
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POZOR: EDC sdílení zatím v EMS NENÍ implementováno — viz závěr studie.
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"""
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from __future__ import annotations
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import asyncio
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import os
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import sys
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from dataclasses import dataclass
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import asyncpg
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import pulp
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INTERVAL_H = 0.25
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WINDOW_DAYS = 7
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BAT_USABLE_WH = 128_000.0
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BAT_POWER_W = 36_000.0
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AC_W = 40_000.0
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IMP_W = 43_000.0
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EXP_W = 42_000.0
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MIN_PCT, MAX_PCT = 10.0, 100.0
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EFF = 0.95
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DEG_CZK_KWH = 0.30
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BLOCK_NEG = True
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DIST_SENSITIVITY = [None, 2.0, 1.5, 1.0] # None = bez sdílení
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@dataclass
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class Slot:
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buy: float
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sell: float
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share_wh: float # sdílitelný přebytek BA81 (jen sloty sell<0, jinak 0)
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def _dsn() -> str:
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return os.environ.get(
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"EMS_DB_DSN", "postgresql://ems_user:dev_password@10.200.200.1:5432/ems"
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)
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async def _load(conn: asyncpg.Connection, price_site: int = 3) -> list[Slot]:
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rows = await conn.fetch(
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"""
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select case when $1 = 5 then p2.effective_buy_price_czk_kwh
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else p.effective_buy_price_czk_kwh end as buy,
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case when $1 = 5 then p2.effective_sell_price_czk_kwh
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else p.effective_sell_price_czk_kwh end as sell,
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case when p.effective_sell_price_czk_kwh < 0
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then greatest(0, coalesce(a.actual_pv_production_wh,0)
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- coalesce(a.actual_load_consumption_wh,0))
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else 0 end as share_wh
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from ems.audit_interval a
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join ems.vw_site_effective_price p
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on p.site_id = a.site_id and p.interval_start = a.interval_start
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left join ems.vw_site_effective_price p2
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on p2.site_id = 5 and p2.interval_start = a.interval_start
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where a.site_id = 3 and a.actual_load_consumption_wh is not null
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and p2.effective_buy_price_czk_kwh is not null
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order by a.interval_start
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""",
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price_site,
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)
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return [Slot(float(r["buy"]), float(r["sell"]), float(r["share_wh"])) for r in rows]
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def solve_window(slots: list[Slot], soc0: float, dist: float | None) -> tuple[float, float]:
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n = len(slots)
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prob = pulp.LpProblem("hu1", pulp.LpMinimize)
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mc = min(BAT_POWER_W, AC_W) * INTERVAL_H
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mi = IMP_W * INTERVAL_H
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me = min(EXP_W, AC_W) * INTERVAL_H
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smin = MIN_PCT / 100 * BAT_USABLE_WH
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smax = MAX_PCT / 100 * BAT_USABLE_WH
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gi = [pulp.LpVariable(f"gi{t}", 0, mi) for t in range(n)]
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ge = [pulp.LpVariable(f"ge{t}", 0, me) for t in range(n)]
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bc = [pulp.LpVariable(f"bc{t}", 0, mc) for t in range(n)]
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bd = [pulp.LpVariable(f"bd{t}", 0, mc) for t in range(n)]
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sh = [
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pulp.LpVariable(f"sh{t}", 0, slots[t].share_wh if dist is not None else 0)
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for t in range(n)
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]
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soc = [pulp.LpVariable(f"s{t}", smin, smax) for t in range(n)]
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y = [pulp.LpVariable(f"y{t}", cat="Binary") for t in range(n)]
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for t in range(n):
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s = slots[t]
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# BESS bez lokální spotřeby/PV: nabíjení ze sítě/sdílení, vybíjení do exportu
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prob += gi[t] + sh[t] + bd[t] == bc[t] + ge[t]
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prev = soc0 if t == 0 else soc[t - 1]
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prob += soc[t] == prev + bc[t] * EFF - bd[t] / EFF
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prob += gi[t] + sh[t] <= mi * y[t]
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prob += ge[t] <= me * (1 - y[t])
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if s.sell < 0 and BLOCK_NEG:
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prob += ge[t] == 0
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if s.buy < 0:
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prob += ge[t] == 0
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avg_buy = sum(s.buy for s in slots) / n
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cash = pulp.lpSum(
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gi[t] / 1000 * slots[t].buy
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+ (sh[t] / 1000 * dist if dist is not None else 0)
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- ge[t] / 1000 * slots[t].sell
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for t in range(n)
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)
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deg = pulp.lpSum(0.5 * (bc[t] + bd[t]) / 1000 * DEG_CZK_KWH for t in range(n))
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prob += cash + deg - soc[n - 1] / 1000 * max(0.0, avg_buy)
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solver = pulp.HiGHS_CMD(msg=False, timeLimit=30) if pulp.HiGHS_CMD().available() else pulp.PULP_CBC_CMD(msg=False)
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prob.solve(solver)
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if pulp.LpStatus[prob.status] != "Optimal":
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raise RuntimeError(pulp.LpStatus[prob.status])
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return float(pulp.value(cash)) + float(pulp.value(deg)), float(soc[n - 1].value())
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async def main() -> None:
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conn = await asyncpg.connect(_dsn())
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try:
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import os as _os
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price_site = int(_os.environ.get('HU1_PRICE_SITE', '3'))
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slots = await _load(conn, price_site)
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finally:
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await conn.close()
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days_total = len(slots) // 96
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share_total = sum(s.share_wh for s in slots) / 1000
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print(f"# HU1 BESS studie — 128 kWh / 36 kW / AC 40 kW; ceny site {price_site} ({'fixní nákup BA81' if price_site==3 else 'SPOT nákup i prodej (site 5)'})")
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print(f"# Období: {days_total} dní (BA81 audit); sdílitelný přebytek BA81 při sell<0: {share_total:.0f} kWh\n")
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for dist in DIST_SENSITIVITY:
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total = 0.0
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soc = 0.3 * BAT_USABLE_WH
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days = 0
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i = 0
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while i + 96 <= len(slots):
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win = slots[i : i + WINDOW_DAYS * 96]
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if len(win) < 96:
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break
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cost, soc = solve_window(win, soc, dist)
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total += cost
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days += len(win) // 96
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i += len(win)
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per_day = -total / max(1, days)
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label = "bez EDC sdílení" if dist is None else f"EDC sdílení, distribuce {dist:.1f} Kč/kWh"
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print(f" {label:<42} výnos {-total:>8.0f} Kč = {per_day:>7.2f} Kč/den (rok ~{per_day*365*0.6:.0f}–{per_day*365:.0f} Kč)")
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print("\nPozn.: horní mez (perfect hindsight); jaro = nejsilnější sezóna pro spot spready.")
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if __name__ == "__main__":
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sys.exit(asyncio.run(main()))
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