tune microcycling

scripts/analysis/ote_arbitrage_proxy.sql

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+-- =============================================================
+-- Hrubý odhad „kolik by přineslo přesunout ~30 kWh/den“ z levných
+-- slotů (OTE sell < práh) do večerních/ranních špiček.
+--
+-- Zjednodušení:
+--   • Kalendářní den v Europe/Prague.
+--   • Bereme jen dny, kde existuje aspoň jeden 15min slot s sell < :cheap_thr.
+--   • „Levná“ strana: průměrná OTE sell ve všech slotech toho dne s sell < :cheap_thr.
+--   • „Drahá“ strana: okno večer+ráno (18:00–24:00 a 0:00–8:00), seřadíme sloty
+--     podle ceny DESC, vyhodíme :drop_top nejvyšších (malá baterie je už „sežere“),
+--     vezmeme dalších :take_slot 15min intervalů → :take_slot × 0,25 h × 12 kW = 30 kWh
+--     při 12 kW a take_slot = 10.
+--   • Hrubý přínos (Kč/den) ≈ :shift_kwh * (avg_peak - avg_cheap); bez účinnosti baterie.
+--
+-- Uprav parametry v nejníže (date_trunc rozsah, práhy, počty slotů).
+-- Spuštění: psql -v ON_ERROR_STOP=1 -f scripts/analysis/ote_arbitrage_proxy.sql
+-- =============================================================
+
+WITH params AS (
+    SELECT
+        0.3::numeric AS cheap_thr,
+        0::int AS drop_top,      -- vynechat N nejdražších 15min ve večer+ráno okně
+        12::int AS take_slot,   -- dalších N slotů = 2,5 h při 15 min
+        30::numeric AS shift_kwh -- objem energie pro hrubý spread (volitelně = take_slot * 0.25 * 12)
+),
+slots AS (
+    SELECT
+        interval_start,
+        (interval_start AT TIME ZONE 'Europe/Prague')::date AS d,
+        (interval_start AT TIME ZONE 'Europe/Prague')::time AS t,
+        sell_raw_price_czk_kwh::numeric AS sell
+    FROM ems.market_interval_price
+    WHERE market_source = 'OTE_CZ'
+      AND interval_start >= TIMESTAMPTZ '2025-04-01 Europe/Prague'
+      AND interval_start < TIMESTAMPTZ '2026-04-01 Europe/Prague'
+),
+days_cheap AS (
+    SELECT s.d
+    FROM slots s
+    GROUP BY s.d
+    HAVING MIN(s.sell) < (SELECT cheap_thr FROM params)
+),
+cheap_side AS (
+    SELECT
+        s.d,
+        AVG(s.sell) AS avg_cheap
+    FROM slots s
+    INNER JOIN days_cheap dc ON dc.d = s.d
+    WHERE s.sell < (SELECT cheap_thr FROM params)
+    GROUP BY s.d
+),
+evening_morning AS (
+    SELECT
+        s.d,
+        s.sell,
+        s.t
+    FROM slots s
+    INNER JOIN days_cheap dc ON dc.d = s.d
+    WHERE s.t >= TIME '18:00'
+       OR s.t < TIME '08:00'
+),
+ranked AS (
+    SELECT
+        em.d,
+        em.sell,
+        ROW_NUMBER() OVER (PARTITION BY em.d ORDER BY em.sell DESC, em.t) AS rn
+    FROM evening_morning em
+),
+peak_pick AS (
+    SELECT
+        r.d,
+        r.sell
+    FROM ranked r
+    WHERE r.rn > (SELECT drop_top FROM params)
+      AND r.rn <= (SELECT drop_top + take_slot FROM params)
+),
+peak_side AS (
+    SELECT d, AVG(sell) AS avg_peak
+    FROM peak_pick
+    GROUP BY d
+),
+per_day AS (
+    SELECT
+        c.d,
+        c.avg_cheap,
+        p.avg_peak,
+        (SELECT shift_kwh FROM params) * (p.avg_peak - c.avg_cheap) AS rough_kc_day
+    FROM cheap_side c
+    INNER JOIN peak_side p ON p.d = c.d
+),
+period AS (
+    SELECT
+        (TIMESTAMPTZ '2026-04-01 Europe/Prague' - TIMESTAMPTZ '2024-04-01 Europe/Prague')
+        AS len
+)
+SELECT
+    COUNT(*)::int AS days_qualifying,
+    ROUND(SUM(pd.rough_kc_day)::numeric, 2) AS spread_kc_sum_period,
+    ROUND(AVG(pd.rough_kc_day)::numeric, 4) AS spread_kc_avg_per_qualifying_day,
+    ROUND(
+        (SUM(pd.rough_kc_day) / NULLIF(EXTRACT(EPOCH FROM (SELECT len FROM period)) / 86400.0, 0) * 365.0)::numeric,
+        2
+    ) AS spread_kc_naive_per_solar_year
+FROM per_day pd;