Fáze 2.2: penalty audit — 16 z 26 penalt mrtvých na golden fixtures

scripts/harness/penalty_audit.py: vynulování každé ekonomické konstanty →
replay 4 golden fixtures → Δcashflow / Δpenalty / změněné sloty.

Výsledek (penalty_audit_baseline_2026-06-11.txt):
- 16/26 penalt bez jakéhokoli vlivu na 4 reprezentativních scénářích
- aktivní penalty silně interagují (odstranění jedné zvedne binding jiných
  o stovky Kč — POS_SELL_PRE_NEG +481, PRE_NEG_BUY_SOC_CEILING −1480)
- Σpenalty 2140 Kč vs cashflow −440 Kč na baseline

CLAUDE.md: doplněna struktura services/planning/ a harness do tabulky adresářů.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
Dusan Vojacek
2026-06-11 13:39:55 +02:00
parent cb6afbb3fd
commit 0dc2e1df96
3 changed files with 199 additions and 0 deletions

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@@ -49,6 +49,8 @@ Když uživatel napíše **„použij MCP“** nebo potřebuje **aktuální řá
| `db/routines/` | Repeatable SQL: funkce `ems.fn_*` |
| `db/views/` | Repeatable SQL: view `ems.vw_*` |
| `backend/services/` | Python služby (v repozitáři zatím hlavně plánování) |
| `backend/services/planning/` | Moduly plánovače: `constants` (vč. všech ekonomických penalt), `types`, `forecast`, `db_io`, `heuristics`; `planning_engine.py` = solver + orchestrace + fasáda (re-export, importy beze změny) |
| `backend/tests/golden/` + `scripts/harness/` | Ekonomický regresní harness: golden replay gate (`test_golden_replay.py`), `extract_fixtures.py`, `economics_report.py`, `penalty_audit.py` — viz `scripts/harness/README.md`; **při změně plánovače musí projít golden gate** |
---

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#!/usr/bin/env python3
"""
Fáze 2 penalty audit: změř přínos každé heuristické penalty v objective.
Pro každou ekonomickou konstantu (penalty/reward/bonus/surcharge) ji vynuluje
ve VŠECH modulech, kde je importovaná (fasáda: planning_engine, planning.heuristics,
planning.constants), přehraje golden fixtures (tests/golden/fixtures/) přes
solve_dispatch_two_pass a porovná s baseline:
- Δcashflow : změna reálných peněz plánu ( = plán vydělá víc bez penalty),
- Δslotů : kolik slotů změnilo battery/grid setpoint (chování),
- bind : jestli penalta vůbec něco dělá (Δ=0 na všech fixtures = mrtvá).
POZOR na interpretaci: penalty mění modelované peníze za robustnost vůči chybě
forecastu. Záporná Δcashflow ⇒ penalta v modelu stojí peníze — to samo o sobě
neznamená „smazat“; mrtvé penalty (bind=NE) ale smazat lze bezpečně.
Druhý krok auditu = economics_report nad reálnými dny.
Spouštět z backend/: python3 ../scripts/harness/penalty_audit.py [--only NÁZEV]
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import argparse
import importlib.util
import json
import re
import sys
from pathlib import Path
BACKEND = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[2] / "backend"
sys.path.insert(0, str(BACKEND))
from services import planning_engine as pe # noqa: E402
from services.planning import constants as C # noqa: E402
from services.planning import heuristics as H # noqa: E402
# replay funkce z golden testu (bez duplikace logiky)
_spec = importlib.util.spec_from_file_location(
"golden_replay", BACKEND / "tests" / "test_golden_replay.py"
)
_golden = importlib.util.module_from_spec(_spec)
_spec.loader.exec_module(_golden)
FIXTURES = sorted((BACKEND / "tests" / "golden" / "fixtures").glob("*.json"))
# Ekonomické konstanty k auditu: penalty/reward/bonus/surcharge/incentive/discourage
AUDIT_PATTERN = re.compile(
r"(PENALTY|SHORTFALL|DISCOURAGE|REWARD|SURCHARGE|INCENTIVE|BONUS)", re.I
)
MODULES = (pe, C, H)
def _audit_names() -> list[str]:
names = []
for n in dir(C):
if n.startswith("_") or not n.isupper():
continue
if AUDIT_PATTERN.search(n) and isinstance(getattr(C, n), (int, float)):
names.append(n)
return sorted(names)
def _set_const(name: str, value: float) -> dict:
saved = {}
for mod in MODULES:
if hasattr(mod, name):
saved[mod.__name__] = getattr(mod, name)
setattr(mod, name, value)
return saved
def _restore_const(name: str, saved: dict) -> None:
for mod in MODULES:
if mod.__name__ in saved:
setattr(mod, name, saved[mod.__name__])
def _replay_all() -> dict[str, dict]:
out = {}
for path in FIXTURES:
fixture = json.loads(path.read_text(encoding="utf-8"))
out[path.stem] = _golden._replay_fixture(fixture)
return out
def _diff(base: dict, new: dict) -> tuple[float, float, int]:
"""(Δcashflow, Δpenalty, změněné sloty) napříč fixtures."""
d_cash = d_pen = 0.0
changed = 0
for key, b in base.items():
n = new[key]
d_cash += n["totals"]["cashflow_czk"] - b["totals"]["cashflow_czk"]
d_pen += n["totals"]["penalty_czk"] - b["totals"]["penalty_czk"]
for rb, rn in zip(b["slots"], n["slots"]):
if (
rb["battery_setpoint_w"] != rn["battery_setpoint_w"]
or rb["grid_setpoint_w"] != rn["grid_setpoint_w"]
or rb["pv_a_curtailed_w"] != rn["pv_a_curtailed_w"]
):
changed += 1
return d_cash, d_pen, changed
def main() -> None:
ap = argparse.ArgumentParser()
ap.add_argument("--only", default=None, help="audit jen jedné konstanty")
args = ap.parse_args()
names = [args.only] if args.only else _audit_names()
print(f"# Penalty audit — {len(names)} konstant × {len(FIXTURES)} fixtures")
print("# Δcashflow: záporné = plán bez penalty vydělá víc (modelované Kč za horizonty fixtures)")
print()
baseline = _replay_all()
base_cash = sum(r["totals"]["cashflow_czk"] for r in baseline.values())
base_pen = sum(r["totals"]["penalty_czk"] for r in baseline.values())
print(f"baseline: cashflow {base_cash:.1f} Kč, penalty {base_pen:.1f}\n")
header = f"{'konstanta':<55} {'hodnota':>9} {'Δcash':>8} {'Δpenalty':>9} {'Δsloty':>6} bind"
print(header)
print("-" * len(header))
rows = []
for name in names:
value = getattr(C, name)
saved = _set_const(name, 0.0)
try:
result = _replay_all()
except Exception as exc: # infeasible apod. — informace sama o sobě
print(f"{name:<55} {value:>9} {'ERROR':>8} {str(exc)[:40]}")
_restore_const(name, saved)
continue
_restore_const(name, saved)
d_cash, d_pen, changed = _diff(baseline, result)
bind = "NE (mrtvá?)" if changed == 0 and abs(d_cash) < 0.05 else "ano"
rows.append((name, value, d_cash, d_pen, changed, bind))
print(f"{name:<55} {value:>9} {d_cash:>8.1f} {d_pen:>9.1f} {changed:>6} {bind}")
dead = [r[0] for r in rows if r[5].startswith("NE")]
print(f"\nMrtvé penalty (žádný vliv na 4 fixtures): {len(dead)}")
for n in dead:
print(f" - {n}")
if __name__ == "__main__":
main()

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# Δcashflow: záporné = plán bez penalty vydělá víc (modelované Kč za horizonty fixtures)
baseline: cashflow -440.4 Kč, penalty 2140.1 Kč
konstanta hodnota Δcash Δpenalty Δsloty bind
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CURTAILMENT_PENALTY 0.001 0.0 -134.4 0 NE (mrtvá?)
EVENING_PUSH_Z_EXPORT_BONUS_CZK 2500.0 0.0 0.0 0 NE (mrtvá?)
LOAD_FIRST_INCENTIVE_CZK_KWH 0.05 0.0 0.0 0 NE (mrtvá?)
NEG_BUY_CHARGE_SHORTFALL_PENALTY_CZK_KWH 100.0 0.0 0.0 0 NE (mrtvá?)
NEG_EVENING_PREP_DISCHARGE_SHORTFALL_PENALTY_CZK_KWH 120.0 0.0 0.0 0 NE (mrtvá?)
NEG_EVENING_RESERVE_SOC_SLACK_PENALTY_CZK_PER_WH 55.0 1.0 -11.7 3 ano
NEG_SELL_BAT_DUMP_SHORTFALL_PENALTY_CZK_KWH 80.0 0.0 0.0 0 NE (mrtvá?)
NEG_SELL_CURTAIL_PENALTY_CZK_KWH 1.0 0.0 0.0 0 NE (mrtvá?)
NEG_SELL_POST_DETACH_BCPV_DISCOURAGE_CZK_KWH 250.0 0.0 0.0 0 NE (mrtvá?)
NEG_SELL_PREP_HOLD_BCPV_PENALTY_CZK_KWH 60.0 0.0 0.0 0 NE (mrtvá?)
NEG_SELL_PREP_SOC_SHORTFALL_PENALTY_CZK_PER_WH 0.85 0.0 0.0 0 NE (mrtvá?)
NEG_SELL_PV_B_VENT_PENALTY_CZK_KWH 4.0 7.5 -50.9 19 ano
NEG_SELL_PV_CHARGE_REWARD_CZK_KWH 0.8 0.0 0.0 0 NE (mrtvá?)
NEG_SELL_SOC_UNDERFILL_PENALTY_CZK_PER_WH 0.35 1.3 -539.8 13 ano
NIGHT_SELF_CONSUME_IMPORT_SURCHARGE_CZK_KWH 4.0 0.3 -0.5 10 ano
PEAK_EXPORT_SHORTFALL_PENALTY_CZK_KWH 80.0 33.1 -18.0 19 ano
POS_SELL_PRE_NEG_SOC_SHORTFALL_PENALTY_CZK_PER_WH 0.3 -20.6 481.2 13 ano
PRENEG_SELL_SOC_ANCHOR_SLACK_PENALTY_CZK_PER_WH 0.2 0.0 0.0 0 NE (mrtvá?)
PRE_NEG_BATT_EXPORT_SHORTFALL_PENALTY_CZK_KWH 80.0 -2.6 0.0 23 ano
PRE_NEG_BUY_EMPTY_EXPORT_SHORTFALL_PENALTY_CZK_KWH 80.0 0.0 0.0 0 NE (mrtvá?)
PRE_NEG_BUY_PV_CHARGE_PENALTY_CZK_KWH 250.0 1.3 -78.4 12 ano
PRE_NEG_BUY_SOC_CEILING_SLACK_PENALTY_CZK_PER_WH 0.25 20.3 -1480.0 33 ano
PRE_NEG_CHARGE_PENALTY_CZK_KWH 400.0 0.0 0.0 0 NE (mrtvá?)
PRE_NEG_PV_BCPV_DISCOURAGE_CZK_KWH 90.0 0.0 0.0 0 NE (mrtvá?)
PRE_NEG_PV_EXPORT_SHORTFALL_PENALTY_CZK_KWH 55.0 0.0 0.0 0 NE (mrtvá?)
PV_CHARGE_SHORTFALL_PENALTY_CZK_KWH 120.0 0.3 -473.9 9 ano
Mrtvé penalty (žádný vliv na 4 fixtures): 16
- CURTAILMENT_PENALTY
- EVENING_PUSH_Z_EXPORT_BONUS_CZK
- LOAD_FIRST_INCENTIVE_CZK_KWH
- NEG_BUY_CHARGE_SHORTFALL_PENALTY_CZK_KWH
- NEG_EVENING_PREP_DISCHARGE_SHORTFALL_PENALTY_CZK_KWH
- NEG_SELL_BAT_DUMP_SHORTFALL_PENALTY_CZK_KWH
- NEG_SELL_CURTAIL_PENALTY_CZK_KWH
- NEG_SELL_POST_DETACH_BCPV_DISCOURAGE_CZK_KWH
- NEG_SELL_PREP_HOLD_BCPV_PENALTY_CZK_KWH
- NEG_SELL_PREP_SOC_SHORTFALL_PENALTY_CZK_PER_WH
- NEG_SELL_PV_CHARGE_REWARD_CZK_KWH
- PRENEG_SELL_SOC_ANCHOR_SLACK_PENALTY_CZK_PER_WH
- PRE_NEG_BUY_EMPTY_EXPORT_SHORTFALL_PENALTY_CZK_KWH
- PRE_NEG_CHARGE_PENALTY_CZK_KWH
- PRE_NEG_PV_BCPV_DISCOURAGE_CZK_KWH
- PRE_NEG_PV_EXPORT_SHORTFALL_PENALTY_CZK_KWH